Why Ollie Watkins is about to make a very smart transfer decision

Ollie Watkins is ready to make a smart career decision, with the 27-year-old Aston Villa striker at the crossroads of his professional life.

Arsenal and Chelsea are both associated with a possible move for the former Brentford striker and at this point in his career this could be the last opportunity he has to play for one of the traditional ‘big six’.

Indeed, FootballTransfers exclusively revealed that the Gunners have been in talks with the player via sporting director Edu.

According to Villa boss Unai Emery, though, the Birmingham club are optimistic that Watkins, who was previously tight-lipped on the issue, will sign a new deal with the club.

“We can be optimistic about the prospect of him extending his contract.” I’m 100% confident because I think he is happy here and he is progressing. He’s taking on a new challenge with us,” Emery told the media ahead of Thursday’s UEFA Conference League encounter with Zrinjski.

Watkins’ big transfer call

Out of contract in 2025, Watkins could have waited until the summer to see what sort of offers might have arrived. With just a year left on his contract, he would have been in a strong position to force Villa into a transfer if that was the route he chose.

But it appears that he has instead elected to commit the remainder of his peak years to Aston Villa – a smart move according to data analytics experts SciSports.

Villa is the perfect club for Watkins, with Emery’s men scoring an impressive 89 on their Club Fit matrix, which takes into account numerous factors including development, playing time, playing style and formation to decide a player’s optimal destination.

The Premier League side are streaks ahead of their rivals in terms of where’s best for Watkins. Liverpool are the only club that comes relatively close, posting a score of 82, while Newcastle come third on 78. In both cases, playing time and formation are problematic.

Arsenal do offer a decent option coming in fourth, despite similar concerns regarding game time and system, but Chelsea rank a miserable 30th.

Watkins, it appears, is making the right decision by staying at Aston Villa.