The Kansas City Royals, who finished the 2023 season with 106 losses, are not only within striking distance of.500, but they also boast one of the best run differentials in baseball as the 2024 season draws to a close. To gain a better understanding of where they are, let’s take a look at where they were just a few months ago, at the conclusion of a disastrous 2023 season. While it may not be fair to call that a disaster, the current rebuild can be traced back to at least 2018, as the team that had won pennants the previous ten years gradually disintegrated. Six years later, you would expect a team in rebuild

Even worse: In ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel’s preseason farm system rankings over the past three years, the Royals have finished 12th, 28th and 26th, respectively. And in McDaniel’s prospect rankings for 2024, they failed to land a single prospect in the top 100.

None of this reads like the resume of a breakout team, but check out the current standings — the Royals have a winning percentage in the top 10 of the majors.

The obvious conclusion is that it’s a fluke. This happens almost every season. Some team emerges from the ether, inspiring a spate of “are they for real” analysis. (Like this one.) At the end of April last year, the Pirates had the best record in the National League with a run differential that justified that mark. They finished 10 games under .500.

The Royals have occupied an early spring “if the season ended today” playoff slot for most of the schedule to date. It’s been a surprising run and an enjoyable run. The question is whether it’s going to be a long run.