Aston Villa will have to ready for ‘rollercoaster’ to continue after up and down start

Aston Villa midfielder John McGinn characterized his team’s start to the season as “a bit of a rollercoaster” after losing 3-0 to Liverpool at Anfield on Sunday (3 September).

Villa confirmed their Europa Conference League participation with an 8-0 aggregate win over Hibernian, then won convincingly against Burnley and Everton before being destroyed by both Jurgen Klopp’s Reds and Eddie Howe’s Newcastle United.

McGinn was keen to point out that their erratic start to the season didn’t fit Emery’s side, who are looking for stability. While this is certainly the ambition of every team in the league, it is rarely achieved.

Quoted by Birmingham Live on Monday (4 September), McGinn said: “Today was a bit of a blow but we need to react the same way we did after Newcastle. We need to put this game in the past and show everyone how good a team we are.

“[It’s been] up and down, a bit of a rollercoaster so far, which doesn’t really suit us,”

Easier said than done

We’ve only just begun the season’s first international break, so McGinn and Aston Villa will have to prepare to ride this rollercoaster for a little while longer if they want to compete for European places this year.

Villa’s next five games are against an offensive Crystal Palace side, Legia Warsaw, Chelsea at Stamford Bridge, Everton in the Carabao Cup, and Brighton at Villa Park to round up their September schedule. On paper, Villa are the favorites in all of those games, but they are up against clubs with very different styles of play.

While there are no easy fixtures while playing in Europe and the Premier League, the next month might be a test of Emery’s team’s ability to compete on all fronts and navigate rivals with very different styles of play.

Their two journeys to the now-“big seven” clubs have seen them struggle to even lay a glove on their opponents, and with Chelsea in poor form, they must ensure they can compete with Mauricio Pochettino’s side when they visit Stamford Bridge.

Villa has demonstrated that they can win in a variety of ways. According to Fotmob statistics, they scored four goals with 60% possession against Everton, but just three times with 43% possession versus Turf Moor. However, they only had 36% possession versus Liverpool.

Emery’s team is taking shots in all of their matches, whether they win or lose. Against Klopp’s team, they managed nine efforts on Allison’s goal, and in wins over Everton and Burnley, they managed 12 and 16, respectively (Fotmob).

The difference is in the xG generated by these possibilities. Villa had 2.7 xG against Vincent Kompany’s team, while they had 3 xG against Everton. Anfield’s nine shots in the losing game only warranted 0.66 xg. Despite the fact that the Villans attempted every shot from inside the box, only three were successful.

Another issue appears to be Villa’s lack of threat from set pieces, with the team averaging an xG of 0.29 from set pieces in the Premier League so far this season, an unusually low statistic when considering the height of their overall expected goals.

Emery’s side isn’t the most physically imposing without Tyrone Mings, with Pau Torres by far and away the biggest aerial threat, standing at 192cm – 8cm taller than Diego Carlos and only slightly taller than Mings himself.

Emery needs to find a way to set up his squad to overcome the major teams away from home, like they did when they beat Tottenham and Chelsea as guests last year. This might be through a change in tactical setup or even a greater sense of belief.