‘There’s a whiff’: Amid discontent and potential failed year, a ‘Big Four’ move could save Bulldogs

David King said it best on Fox Footy’s The First Crack: “There’s a whiff out West.”

The Western Bulldogs will this week be relying on arch-rival Greater Western Sydney to lose; that is, of course, if the Dogs first defeat a heavily decimated Geelong on Saturday night.

While the Dogs overcame a shaky start to the season to sit percentage out of the top four at the close of round 10, the side has fallen off a cliff in the months since, winning just four of 12 matches.

The rumblings out of the kennel have grown louder as this form slump has dragged on, with disharmony reaching fever pitch after a shock loss to the hapless West Coast Eagles on Saturday.

Several rival clubs spoken to by foxfooty.com.au have been made aware of discontent among some senior players with decisions made by top brass, ranging from team selection through to off-field decision-making.

Such has been the level of industry chatter about disharmony that Adam Treloar’s manager, Tim Hazell of Vivid Sport, had to douse speculation his client would seek a trade to Queensland at season’s end, despite being contracted until 2025.

“It’s not true. The phone has been going pretty consistent the last couple of weeks and it’s in overdrive at the moment,” Hazell told AFL Media’s Gettable.

“Adzy, he loves the Bulldogs, he doesn’t want to go anywhere. I’m really happy to put on the record he’ll be at the Western Bulldogs next year and he’ll see out his career there unless something does drastically change. Right now, Adam Treloar loves the Doggies.”

King made the point on Sunday night: “They’ve got a lot of problems and it would actually probably best serve them to miss the eight and have it be as brutal as it can be and find those answers.”

THE LIST

As the Dogs stagnate and splutter, the age-old question arises: Is it the list or the coach?

Beveridge, while accepting the onus was on him to get his side back to its best, seemed to lean towards the former when asked where it was all going wrong post-match.

“Are you looking at our whole list, are you looking at players who have been influential in the past … is your knowledge of the game sophisticated enough to understand that it takes more than a handful (of players)?” he said.

“If the assessment is that there’s more in us than what we’re getting, then that’s an analytical thing that you’re totally entitled to.”

His assessment of the list comes despite Dogs CEO Ameet Bains’ comments earlier this season, when he responded “yeah we do” when asked on SEN’s Crunch Time by King if the side believed it had a top-four list.

While numbers may not always tell the full story, the club’s list demographic screams of a side built to be contending for flags now.

Consider that the team playing against West Coast was the seventh-oldest and seventh-most experienced in the competition, with 12 players between the age of 23 and 29.

It’s a side that should be in its sweet spot but instead is scrapping for a spot in September.

There are frustrations with the side’s bottom rung and the consistency of that mix, but even within the club’s top handful there have been marked form drop-offs.

Marcus Bontempelli, Tim English and Tom Liberatore are not in that category given their sterling seasons and neither is Jamarra Ugle-Hagan, who has taken significant strides forward in 2023.

Others, however, have regressed significantly, with Caleb Daniel and Bailey Smith two among them.

Hailed as arguably the best kick in the competition, Daniel’s kick rating dropped from first last year to 95th this season.

Cody Weightman’s output fluctuates wildly even by small forward standards, while Jack Macrae has been moved to a more forward-heavy role.

THE COACH

While the club’s malaise is frustrating, it must be noted Beveridge does his best work when his side is up against the wall.

The Dogs have not finished in the top four during his nine-year tenure and yet have both won a premiership and made a grand final.

Even in 2015 Beveridge pulled off an impressive feat, taking the side to the finals for the first time since 2010 despite significant off-field upheaval leading into the season and meek forecasts externally.

The side’s surge to the 2016 premiership remains one of the modern era’s biggest outliers, while the run to the 2021 grand final was remarkable given the injury and heavy travel toll the side endured during the finals series.

With an emphasis on themed lead-ins over the years, Beveridge has proven one of the game’s great motivators.

It’s for that reason – coupled with Geelong’s suite of withdrawals – that his side could easily make the most of a trip down the highway and keep its finals hopes somewhat alive.

But, for all those positives, the fact remains the Dogs are for the second consecutive season relying on a match involving Carlton in order to qualify for the finals.

It’s a razor’s edge the side, by its own admission, should not be at the mercy of.

Still, football boss Chris Grant’s comments on SEN’s Whateley this week were an indication the club sees Beveridge as the right man to maximise its list.

Change instead seems set to occur around the periphery and begun with earnest when long-serving lieutenant Rohan Smith was informed his contract would not be renewed for 2024.

That decision was at odds with Beveridge, who did not want to lose Smith and expressed his appreciation for him at an emotional mid-week press conference earlier this month.

The club has lost significant coaching experience in recent years, headlined by Steven King and Ash Hansen, so the decision to bring over Brendon Lade from St Kilda at the close of last season was shrewd.

With the messaging out of the club, more coaching experience will likely be hunted by them in a bid to bolster Beveridge’s support and change the mix around him.

It happened with great success at Richmond under Damien Hardwick at the close of 2016 and it looks set to be the approach the Dogs take into 2024.

THE ‘BIG FOUR’

At this stage, the Dogs have an unenviable task next season in trying to retain all of the out-of-contract ‘Big Four’: Aaron Naughton, Smith, Tim English and Jamarra Ugle-Hagan.

Tom Liberatore is part of that out-of-contract mix too, but will be 32 and bleeds red, white and blue.

For others, a 2024 season similar to 2023 would not only cast doubt on Beveridge, but also the makeup of a list many believe should be contending for a premiership.

Smith’s frustration with being played at half-forward has become well-known and those tensions are far from eased.

His output has plummeted, with this the lowest-rated of his five seasons in the competition and his kick rating the fourth-worst in the game.

Once among the competition’s elite, Smith’s output has stagnated in a new role, but at 22 years of age and with a fearsome work ethic, his upside remains considerable along with his trade currency.

While Geelong has denied it is chasing Smith, industry chatter continues to roll on about his frustrations in his current role and interest from those down the highway.

The Cats’ midfield brigade has struggled in 2023 and appears in desperate need of bolstering in this year’s trade period.

Patrick Dangerfield is 33, Mark Blicavs is 32 and Cam Guthrie is 30, with the younger brigade barring Tom Atkins yet to truly solidify themselves as players who can hold down a spot in the engine room.

Darcy Parish remains unsigned with one round remaining in Essendon’s season, but Smith could prove just as valuable a recruit with a fresh start and vastly increased midfield minutes.

So much of what comes next centres on Smith’s intentions, but the Cats don’t have much to play with. Heading into the final round of the season, the reigning premiers hold pick No.8, but then only pick 80, given the club traded out three of its 2023 selections last season in order to make the deal for Jack Bowes work.

You’d be hard-pressed to see the Dogs satisfied with pick No.8 given they drafted Smith with pick No.7 back in 2018.

A future-first on top of that would likely be demanded before negotiations began to unfold.

All of this, of course, is based on the possibility his frustration boils over and leads to a trade request, which is not a fait accompli.

English and Naughton both have family in Western Australia, but have also had interest from other interstate sides.

For English, his value is surging towards the seven-figure mark, with a maiden All-Australian ruck spot seemingly his for the taking this season.

Naughton’s output may not have spiked as many had hoped this year, but players of his capability are hard to come by and feverishly sought-after.

Ugle-Hagan’s stock will only rise given his output in 2023 and the promise of the development ahead for a player who, remarkably, is still just 21 years of age.

The good news for the Dogs is that Josh Dunkley’s departure at the close of last season has left them with more cap space than they would’ve planned for and they could enjoy even more manoeuvrability depending on the pay deal being feverishly negotiated between the AFL and the AFL Players’ Association.

The bad news is that players are historically paid less to stay than they are to leave and convincing players to stay on less will be mightily difficult if the Dogs start poorly again in 2024 and their hopes of a premiership with the current list drift further.

Money must also be put aside for Bontempelli, who will fall out of contract in 2025 and become an unrestricted free agent.

Appearing to be nearing or at his prime and not even mentioning his leadership capability, Bontempelli could easily become the highest-paid player in the competition when his new deal is negotiated.

Bontempelli’s loyalty cannot go unmentioned, but neither can his extraordinary output in a side that is sorely lacking consistent excellence barring a few.

THE VERDICT

Whatever the case, there are issues galore for Beveridge to sink his teeth into over the off-season.

The club’s defensive 50 to inside 50 transition game has fallen from fourth last season to 15th this year, while kick rating has plummeted from fifth to 16th.

If the Dogs opt to stay the course under Beveridge – and they have indicated they will – the weight of expectation next season will be significant.

The club has an opportunity this off-season to maximise the value of at least one of its assets before it no longer has the bargaining chip of a player being under contract if a trade request were to come at the close of next season.

Should the Dogs fall behind in 2024 and risk another underwhelming season, keeping an already-frustrated core of players – on what would likely be less than what clubs will be offering to lure them out – will go from challenging to nigh-on impossible.

As King said on The First Crack: “Some players may have to move on, some big names, because right now the mix is broken.

“Something’s not right in the West. If they just roll on, this will happen again next year and they will never become that top four list they promise.

“They may have to move a big name just to shake things a bit.”