Leeds United’s away form in 2023/24 is highly likely to decide whether the team make an immediate return to the Premier League next season.
Leeds’ first away encounter of the season is scheduled for this weekend as the Whites travel south to Birmingham where John Eustace’s Blues await.
Daniel Farke’s side were saved from the ignominy of an opening day defeat to unfancied Cardiff City by Crysencio Summerville’s stoppage time equaliser last weekend, salvaging a 2-2 draw in front of the Elland Road crowd.
The Bluebirds set up to frustrate the home side whilst scoring with each of their two shots on target in the match, much to new manager Farke’s annoyance.
“They were also unbelievably effective and defended more or less [at] the six-yard box pretty well and for that you also have to give credit to them that they’re defending was really good,” the German said at full-time.
Teams in the second tier will arrive in LS11 this season with Cardiff’s approach as their blueprint, although many will not execute their gameplan as effectively as the south Wales club – that is almost an inevitability.
Farke will be tasked with finding solutions to low blocks and defences camped on the edge of their own penalty areas at Elland Road, but it is Leeds’ away form which could determine how successful the team are come the end of the season.
In each of the last two Championship seasons, the three promoted teams recorded the first, second and third-best away records in the division.
2022/23
– 1. Burnley – 47 away points (P)
– 2. Luton – 41 away points (P)
– 3. Sheff Utd – 40 away points (P)
2021/22
– 1. Fulham – 44 away points (P)
– 2. Bournemouth – 42 away points (P)
– 3. Nott’m Forest – 37 away points (P)
Three seasons ago, promoted Norwich City and Brentford boasted the best and second-best away records, while fellow promoted club Watford ranked eighth in the away table.
The Hornets did however win 19 of their 23 home league matches that season, finishing nine points clear of their nearest challenger in the home table, whilst also conceding the fewest goals in away fixtures, reinforcing the point that form on the road is vitally important.
With the squad at Farke’s disposal, particularly at the top of the pitch, away fixtures are likely to provide a better indicator of how effective Leeds’ attack can be this season. At home, teams are more likely to open up and play their own brand of football, leaving space for United’s counter-attacking assets.
Based on previous seasons, if Leeds can use this to their advantage and chalk up several victories away from Elland Road, they will give themselves a fighting chance of returning to the Premier League next May.
Furthermore, when the Whites were last promoted to the top flight, they recorded the Championship’s best away record in 2019/20, accruing 43 points from 23 games, scoring the second-most in the division. Also promoted that year, West Bromwich Albion racked up 43 points on the road, albeit with an inferior goal difference to Marcelo Bielsa’s champions.
Winning your home games is crucial; it allows teams to create daylight between themselves and promotion challengers. But, as evidenced above, away form could prove to be just as decisive, if not more so; something Farke and his staff will be acutely aware of as they prepare for their first away match of the season at St Andrew’s Stadium.
